I appreciate your fact based approach to this. Last week, I tried to logic my mom into a zipline activity by telling her that driving down the tollway in Dallas is objectively way more dangerous, but I didn't have any luck :)
I've sold a lot of travel in Latin America, and so I especially appreciated your section about political unrest, because it's exactly like you said - the pattern has always been that big protests flare up quickly, settle down equally quickly, and the places involved often aren't anywhere near our itineraries. I usually could convince clients that was the case, but it helps a lot to have contacts on the ground who can send accurate and rational updates.
I agree about the helicopter risk, I’m glad I have taken a helicopter to see the Napoli coast before I had children, but now don’t think I will be booking any more helicopter tours. Same goes for skydiving, glad I did it pre kids, but it is in the past.
Once again, another well-written post! I have very low risk tolerance for small planes and helicopters. I will not fly on them! But, there’s greater risk for me to ride in a car. Sooooo, my bias clearly is in favor of something I think I can control.
Anyway, glad to hear that you went to Darden. I attended U.Va. for undergrad and law school. Wahoowa!
Thank you for the detailed analysis. You and I both exist in the same realm and have similar experiences. I often use what I call the “day of” model to evaluate risk. In other words, the risk of flying must be evaluated based on the conditions that exist on the day of travel, not based on historical statistics. The absolute worst statistic to believe is zero, as in “this has never happened before, so it will not happen now.”
I’m so glad you enjoyed my piece! Survivorship bias is definitely real. It’s like assuming that you won’t get in a car wreck in a snowstorm because you didn’t get in one the last time you drove to the mountains.
I maintain that driving abroad the greatest risk of all, but people don’t seem to weigh that risk the same way as more vivid ones that make the news
Thank you for this commonsense assessment. Having a high risk tolerance like an intrepid traveler can really only be done through exposure. Once you get through a few crises, anything else that happens in the future seems more manageable.
Now you’ve confirmed my fear of helicopters once again. The last time, I accompanied a guest to the Grand Canyon, and I was literally praying for that flight to be over as soon as possible. I promised myself I would never do it again.
A month ago, I couldn’t avoid it because, for work, I was travelling with a client from Athens to Skiathos to carry out a site inspection for a villa consultancy. I was terrified!
Unfortunately, it’s a fear I don’t think I’ll be able to overcome easily.
Well as the smallest person on the helicopter I was forced to sit at the window side, not in the middle in Kauai. I was terrified but it was cool after I relaxed. But given those stats, now with kids, I would think again.
I appreciate your fact based approach to this. Last week, I tried to logic my mom into a zipline activity by telling her that driving down the tollway in Dallas is objectively way more dangerous, but I didn't have any luck :)
I've sold a lot of travel in Latin America, and so I especially appreciated your section about political unrest, because it's exactly like you said - the pattern has always been that big protests flare up quickly, settle down equally quickly, and the places involved often aren't anywhere near our itineraries. I usually could convince clients that was the case, but it helps a lot to have contacts on the ground who can send accurate and rational updates.
I agree about the helicopter risk, I’m glad I have taken a helicopter to see the Napoli coast before I had children, but now don’t think I will be booking any more helicopter tours. Same goes for skydiving, glad I did it pre kids, but it is in the past.
It is amazing what having kids has done to my risk tolerance. Now that my own parents are gone, I just don’t want to put my kids in the same position.
Once again, another well-written post! I have very low risk tolerance for small planes and helicopters. I will not fly on them! But, there’s greater risk for me to ride in a car. Sooooo, my bias clearly is in favor of something I think I can control.
Anyway, glad to hear that you went to Darden. I attended U.Va. for undergrad and law school. Wahoowa!
Thank you! Wahoowa!!
Thank you for the detailed analysis. You and I both exist in the same realm and have similar experiences. I often use what I call the “day of” model to evaluate risk. In other words, the risk of flying must be evaluated based on the conditions that exist on the day of travel, not based on historical statistics. The absolute worst statistic to believe is zero, as in “this has never happened before, so it will not happen now.”
I’m so glad you enjoyed my piece! Survivorship bias is definitely real. It’s like assuming that you won’t get in a car wreck in a snowstorm because you didn’t get in one the last time you drove to the mountains.
I maintain that driving abroad the greatest risk of all, but people don’t seem to weigh that risk the same way as more vivid ones that make the news
Thank you for this commonsense assessment. Having a high risk tolerance like an intrepid traveler can really only be done through exposure. Once you get through a few crises, anything else that happens in the future seems more manageable.
True. I wonder how my client base skews - like are people more or less likely to use a travel advisor if they are fearful of crises?
My theory is they would be more likely to use your services for added peace of mind
Now you’ve confirmed my fear of helicopters once again. The last time, I accompanied a guest to the Grand Canyon, and I was literally praying for that flight to be over as soon as possible. I promised myself I would never do it again.
A month ago, I couldn’t avoid it because, for work, I was travelling with a client from Athens to Skiathos to carry out a site inspection for a villa consultancy. I was terrified!
Unfortunately, it’s a fear I don’t think I’ll be able to overcome easily.
Every time I’ve flown on one, I think “this will be the time I’m brave” but I really end up feeling like I’m going to faint the whole time
I can understand you
Well as the smallest person on the helicopter I was forced to sit at the window side, not in the middle in Kauai. I was terrified but it was cool after I relaxed. But given those stats, now with kids, I would think again.